‘Papabile’ of the Day: Cardinal Péter Erdő

John L Allen Jr/ Crux• April 26, 2025

It is a matter of historical record that, years before the conclave of 2005 which elected Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger as Pope Benedict XVI, a group of centre-left European prelates – known as the “Sankt Gallen Group” after the Swiss city where they met – consciously sought a less doctrinaire alternative for the next pope and believed they had found their man in Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Argentina.

Bergoglio did not prevail in 2005, but he ascended to the papacy eight years later at the conclave of 2013.

So far as we know, there is no equivalent Sankt Gallen Group on the Catholic centre-right today, scheming to secure the election of a more conservative figure this time around. As a thought exercise, however, let us assume such a cabal existed: who might their candidate be?

For some time now, the consensus answer has been 72-year-old Cardinal Péter Erdő of Budapest, Hungary, making him the most obvious – and perhaps the most promising – “discontinuity” candidate in the looming conclave.

Born in 1952 as the first of six children, Erdő grew up in a committed Catholic family, later recalling that “the faith was woven into the fabric of our lives.” In such an environment, it was natural for him to feel the stirrings of a vocation to the priesthood. He entered the seminary in both Esztergom and Budapest, and was ordained in 1975. Demonstrating a nimble mind, he was sent for further studies to the Pontifical Lateran University in Rome, where he discovered an aptitude for canon law.

For a time, it appeared Erdő was destined for an academic career, serving as professor of theology and canon law at the seminary in Esztergom, as well as guest lecturer at various European universities. However, in November 1999, he was appointed auxiliary bishop of Székesfehérvár, signalling that his rise within the ecclesiastical hierarchy would not stop there.

In December 2002, Erdő was named Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, becoming the Primate of Hungary. When Pope John Paul II created him cardinal in 2003 at the age of 51, Erdő was widely regarded as one of the rising stars of the Catholic Church.

Nothing in the years since has dispelled that perception. Erdő was twice elected president of the Council of European Bishops’ Conferences, in 2005 and 2011, reflecting the respect and trust he commands among his peers. He has also been entrusted with delicate assignments in Rome, notably in 2011 when he was asked to mediate a dispute in Peru between the conservative Cardinal Juan Luis Cipriani Thorne and the more left-leaning Pontifical Catholic University.

In 2014 and 2015, Erdő served as relator – effectively chairman – of Pope Francis’s contentious Synods of Bishops on the Family, where the key issue was whether divorced and civilly remarried Catholics should be permitted to receive Communion. Although it was clear that Pope Francis favoured a more permissive approach, Erdő maintained his more restrictive stance, using his opening address in 2015 to assert that the ban on Communion in such cases was not an “arbitrary prohibition” but intrinsic to the nature of marriage as a permanent union.

In other areas too, Erdő is generally seen as cautious and conservative. During the height of the European migrant crisis in 2015, when Pope Francis urged Catholic institutions to shelter migrants and refugees, Erdő warned that indiscriminate hospitality could risk making the Church complicit in human trafficking.

He enjoys warm relations with Hungary’s Fidesz government under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. In September 2023, he attended an exclusive annual gathering for Fidesz insiders and VIPs, prompting speculation about close ties between Church and state. Some believe that Hungary’s state-controlled media is subtly promoting Erdő’s candidacy for the Throne of Peter.

Supporters argue that Erdő’s rapport with Orbán could prove advantageous in navigating the challenges of statecraft as pope. However, he has also faced criticism, notably from the Survivors Network of Those Abused by Priests, over allegations of mishandling a clerical abuse case. His defenders insist his involvement was minimal and appropriate.

What is the case for Erdő? Fundamentally, he is seen as the ideal candidate for those wishing to guide the Church in a more traditional direction without openly repudiating Pope Francis’s legacy. Diplomatic and conflict-averse, Erdő has been described by one Italian newspaper as the “friendly traditionalist.”

His expertise in canon law would assist in navigating the complex legal reforms introduced during the Francis pontificate. His deep experience in European affairs could also serve the Church well at a time when Europe’s geopolitical role is shifting, offering the papacy a platform for renewed moral and spiritual leadership.

Few doubt Erdő’s gravitas – his intellectual and cultural depth is widely acknowledged. Under his leadership, many believe the Church would be in steady hands.

The case against him? However diplomatic he may be, Erdő’s election would likely be interpreted as a rejection of the Francis era, a move many of the 135 cardinal electors may be reluctant to make. Critics also argue that while Erdő possesses gravitas, he lacks the charisma needed to capture global attention in the way recent popes have done. Additionally, after the global outreach of Pope Francis, some fear that electing a European figure could be seen as a retreat, given that nearly three-quarters of the world’s 1.3 billion Catholics live outside the West.

Twice during Pope Francis’s pontificate, Erdő helped organise papal visits to Hungary, in 2021 and 2023. Whether he will return again as a pope himself – this time as the VIP in white – remains to be seen.